After Wednesday night, the WNBA Finals have a new favorite. The Atlanta Dream beat the Golden State Valkyries 97-71 in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead, and on Saturday afternoon they get one more home game at State Farm Arena. Win it, and Atlanta can clinch the first championship in franchise history on Monday night in San Francisco. Lose it, and this becomes a best-of-three.
Game 4 at a Glance
| Matchup | Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream |
| Series | Dream lead 2-1 |
| When | Saturday, Oct. 24, 1 p.m. ET (noon Central) |
| Where | State Farm Arena, Atlanta |
| TV | NBC, Peacock |
| Line | Dream -4.5, total 153.5 (DraftKings opening line) |
| Tickets | Sold out |
| Injuries | None reported for either team |
Where We Left Off
I covered Game 3 in detail here. The short version: Golden State missed its first eight shots, Atlanta jumped out to a 9-1 lead, and the Dream led 46-40 at halftime. The Valkyries tied it at 49 early in the third quarter, and then Atlanta took over. The Dream scored the next eight points, closed the quarter on a 12-2 run, and outscored Golden State 51-31 in the second half.
Angel Reese had 21 points and 12 rebounds. Rhyne Howard added 16 points and five steals, and Naz Hillmon scored 15 off three made threes. It was the most complete game either team has played in this series.
Three Things to Watch
1. The third quarter. This has been Atlanta’s quarter all series. The Dream have outscored the Valkyries 63-35 in the third quarter through three games. Whatever Golden State does in the first half, its coaching staff has to figure out what keeps going wrong coming out of the locker room.
2. Gabby Williams. Williams scored 26 points in Game 1. Since then, she is 8-of-33 from the field. She is still filling up the stat sheet with assists and steals, but Golden State does not win this series unless its best scorer starts scoring again.
3. Can anyone stop Angel Reese? Reese has a double-double in every game of these Finals. In Game 3, she even made both of her three-point attempts. Golden State has not found an answer for her yet, and it is running out of time to find one.
Turnovers Are Still the Story
Golden State turned it over 19 times in Game 2 and 17 times in Game 3. Atlanta turned those into 24 and 22 points. In Game 1, Atlanta scored just eight points off turnovers, and Golden State won. When the Valkyries give the Dream easy baskets, they get run out of the building. It really is that simple.
Do Not Count Out Golden State
The Valkyries are only in their second season, and they have already done something most expansion teams never do by reaching the Finals in year two. They have not backed down from anyone, and they swept the Las Vegas Aces to get here. Losing by 26 in a sold-out road building is the kind of game that either breaks a young team or wakes it up. My guess is that they come out swinging on Saturday.
The Rest of the Series
| Game | Date | Location | Result / Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game 1 | Sat., Oct. 17 | San Francisco | Valkyries 68, Dream 64 |
| Game 2 | Mon., Oct. 19 | San Francisco | Dream 79, Valkyries 65 |
| Game 3 | Wed., Oct. 21 | Atlanta | Dream 97, Valkyries 71 |
| Game 4 | Sat., Oct. 24 | Atlanta | 1 p.m. ET, NBC |
| Game 5 | Mon., Oct. 26 | San Francisco | 8 p.m. ET |
| Game 6* | Thu., Oct. 29 | Atlanta | 8 p.m. ET |
| Game 7* | Sat., Oct. 31 | San Francisco | 8 p.m. ET |
*If necessary
My Pick
I picked the winner in Game 3 and missed the score by a mile, so take this for what it is worth. I expect Golden State to play much better, especially early. But Atlanta has the best player in the series, a supporting cast that keeps finding new heroes, and one more home game in front of a crowd that showed up loud on Wednesday. Dream 81, Valkyries 75. The Dream opened as 4.5-point favorites with the total at 153.5, so I am taking Atlanta to cover and a few more points than the books expect.
That would put Atlanta one win away from a title, with a chance to finish it in San Francisco on Monday night. Saturday afternoon cannot get here fast enough.
Featured photo: Angel Reese of the Atlanta Dream by Michaelcohnphoto, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
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